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  • The chase on the decline?

    Thanks to Harry’s crew for this one. Six the chase now on the decline?

    Posted by Dal on Dalneitzals site:
    "Joe-
    Forrest used that 350K number more than once…and wasn’t it quite awhile ago when he used that number?
    If the blogs are any indication…or perhaps I should say if THIS blog is any indication…then I would say that interest peaked last year or the year before. If true, this is good news for those who want less competition while searching but perhaps not such good news for those selling chase related T-shirts and magic 8-balls.
    I would also say that a decline in searchers is inevitable over time given that Forrest is decreasing his involvement in media interviews which stimulate publicity and therefore awareness…
    In the long game…folks need a real or imagined carrot at the end of the stick to keep the game moving forward…
    The carrot seems to be harder to imagine after nearly nine years…at least for the masses…
    There will always be an elite group who clearly see the carrot and move forward…but for most, the trek becomes tiresome after nine years of no success by hundreds of thousands of searchers…
    As in war…grunts get weary after years and years in the same trench…no movement…no momentum…no encouragement..
    There are always a few, new, starry eyed recruits who believe they can get the job done…and the elders encourage them…but without a carrot the new also lose their way and become unable to move forward…
    So, what happens next?
    An explosion I suspect…something new and different that will capture the attention of searchers and reinvigorate their imaginations…
    It has to happen…
    I am listening!
    “Positivity triumphs over negativity” - famous quote by the famous Cowlazars 2018

  • #2
    It doesn't much matter. It has (almost) nothing to do with my personal search and my personal enjoyment. So I guess I'm sort of in the less the merrier camp.

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    • #3
      I think interest waxes and wanes, and that in the last year there was a lot of tension and drama that likely led some to leave the online communities, but they're probably still around elsewhere....and a large number of facebook groups have also likely captured searchers that don't come to the boards. I know for me, there are a couple of boards I don't bother with anymore, others I frequent occasionally, and this one that is my usual hangout now. Honestly, I don't think it matters how many are searching, actively or occasionally, there can only be one person that figures it out (or a team working together)....as long as I'm having fun matching wits with Fenn, I'm still in it until it's found....I work on solving this because it's a challenge.

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      • #4
        I suppose it's only natural to want to estimate how much "competition" one is dealing with, and to break out those estimates into various categories, e.g. people who have: (1) heard of the Chase in passing (e.g. on the Today Show) but have never read the poem, (2) read the poem, (3) can recite the poem from memory, (4) have put BOTG once, (5) have put BOTG multiple times, etc. Many other unknowable searcher factoids would be interesting: breakdown of # of total searches per state, # of people with TTOTC, TFTW *and* OUAW, # of people who have quit the Chase for good, # of folks who have been at it for a month, a year, three years, seven plus years...

        Each of us can do our own informal surveys that address #1. Ask 100 people if they've heard of Forrest Fenn and/or his treasure. I've done this haphazardly over the last four years (mostly in Southern California) and it's less than 1 in 100. I expect the fraction is quite a bit higher in Santa Fe. ;-)

        We also have Forrest's book sales to guide us. Last I checked it was over 40,000 for TTOTC -- a figure that had grown substantially in just one year. Quite a bit less for TFTW. Don't know if I've ever read any sales figures on OUAW. Personally, I don't think anyone without TTOTC has a chance of solving the poem, and if that's true then that cuts the field of competition pretty substantially. If you believe TFTW is a big help or even essential, the field of potential winners gets even smaller.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Zapster View Post
          Personally, I don't think anyone without TTOTC has a chance of solving the poem, and if that's true then that cuts the field of competition pretty substantially. If you believe TFTW is a big help or even essential, the field of potential winners gets even smaller.
          I do not have TTOTC, I only knew half a dozen words in English and I had no idea of ​​the existence of the Rocky Mountains.
          However I am here ... and I will still surprise many of you!


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          • #6
            McB: you are at a huge disadvantage due to the language barrier (idioms in a foreign language are particularly tough) and simple geography=$$$, but I commend your persistence and positive attitude in spite of those difficulties.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Zapster View Post
              McB: you are at a huge disadvantage due to the language barrier (idioms in a foreign language are particularly tough) and simple geography=$$$, but I commend your persistence and positive attitude in spite of those difficulties.
              The "chase" is all I ever wanted. I love mental challenges. And solving the poem ... it was great! Better yet, researching the most diverse maps, from the most diverse times.
              As for language, I think it's a plus for me. This forced me to study as much as possible, without letting language addictions interfere. Sometimes I read comments without needing a translator.
              As far as distance is concerned, this is not exactly a problem. I've met some fantastic people who joined me on this adventure. And now it will be my turn to put the boots on the ground.
              Only the adventure, with or without the chest, will be unforgettable.
              And ... being here with you all, exchanging ideas, is incredible! I just have to thank you all.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by M.c.B. View Post

                I do not have TTOTC, I only knew half a dozen words in English and I had no idea of ​​the existence of the Rocky Mountains.
                However I am here ... and I will still surprise many of you!

                ( . . .Yawn . . . ) I only knew ZERO words in English (the day after I was born). I had no idea of the existence of the Rocky Mountains, Rachel Madcow, or Burny Slanders at the time. I might believe that
                you don't have TTOTC. The thrill may be gone for you. Thanks for posting. Maybe you could post some idea(s) that'll help refresh interest in the blogs, chase, etc.

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                • #9
                  Old Pilot: you seem a bit down. New ideas you ask? I'll play: Scrapbook 1 (and later within TFTW) plus end papers of TFTW: in both cases crossed fishing poles forming an X, and in the latter case it required mirror-imaging the illustration of Peggy with her fish to force the X. In both cases, a rock or rocks in close "proximaty" to the X. Whatd'ya think: deliberate or happenstance?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Old Pilot View Post

                    ( . . .Yawn . . . ) I only knew ZERO words in English (the day after I was born). I had no idea of the existence of the Rocky Mountains, Rachel Madcow, or Burny Slanders at the time. I might believe that
                    you don't have TTOTC. The thrill may be gone for you. Thanks for posting. Maybe you could post some idea(s) that'll help refresh interest in the blogs, chase, etc.
                    I have a BOTG soon. After that I'll post the aberrations I found, without names, of course!

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                    • #11
                      Anyone know where on Dal's that's posted? I looked through the active topics and couldn't find it.
                      "I once sent a dozen of my friends a telegram saying 'flee at once - all is discovered.' They all left town immediately." ~ Mark Twain

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                      • #12
                        Antigroove: I saw it earlier today -- I think it was on Odds and Ends.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by antigroove View Post
                          Anyone know where on Dal's that's posted? I looked through the active topics and couldn't find it.
                          https://dalneitzel.com/2019/03/11/sc...comment-752337

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                          • #14
                            Correction: Scrapbook 198.

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                            • #15
                              I didn't hear about the chase until last year. It hasn't been marketed much. The mass media can't make a lot of money off of it, and without ad revenue it's an oddity at best. Now if the person that finds it licenses with Energizer batteries, Pepsi cola and Marlborough smokes it will go wild!

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