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A Summary of Jack's Emails

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  • #16
    Here you go Jack. You have stated that the scrapbooks do not hold any hints.
    Click image for larger version  Name:	sb155.JPG Views:	0 Size:	16.5 KB ID:	270184
    A good forger attempts to deceive the naked human eye.
    It's part of the challenge in the game he plays.

    Deceiving science in expert hands is however, practically impossible!"

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by OH!! View Post
      Here you go Jack. You have stated that the scrapbooks do not hold any hints.
      Click image for larger version Name:	sb155.JPG Views:	0 Size:	16.5 KB ID:	270184
      So, where now does that leave the poor shy guy? ...I'm guessing one detail short. Don't mind me I'm only here for entertainment, lol.

      Comment


      • #18
        There is a possibility that has not been considered by anybody here, which is that the search area had an extreme amount of lodgepole pine deadfall. A "normal" forest can indeed be searched rather quickly because the number of possible hiding spots are simply not that numerous. In a jumble of fallen trees, however, simply moving around becomes very difficult especially on a slope and you have to search the entire length of each log. On both sides. And move branches and possibly some smaller trunks to get close enough to check to some spots.. Without a strong method and GPS, you end up wasting a lot of time going over the same ground again and again, which is what Jack probably did a lot of.

        Also, an area the size of a football field doesn't need to be the shape of a football field. It could easily be a 1000 feet long and 50 feet wide.

        Finally, Jack might have wasted quite a bit of time looking for the blaze and not specifically for the treasure. Presumably the blaze (before being damaged) would have been at eye level or above so this is a different activity from searching all the spaces under or along fallen trees.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by thehomeofBrown.com View Post
          Interesting take. The numbers aren't as strange though if you consider how Jack might be counting those 25 days. Let's assume that he made five separate, five day trips (5x5=25) over the 2018-2020 search season. That makes the math easy, but it's also a normal amount of time for a long-weekend BOTG trip. Jack said he flew out west and rented a car. That means he's burning two search days on each trip just getting to his general area. So our equation is now 5x(5-2)=15.

          Next I looked up the parameters from several of my own search areas where I had performed dedicated search grids using GPS. I was averaging about 25,000 square feet/day which is far less than you propose here. Using my system, it would take as much as seven days to search three football fields. Why? Because I like to hike around and see everything in the area and usually only search a couple hours a day. Once I've ruled out my primary blaze location, I'm not in a particular hurry to do the methodical grid searching that is necessary to completely rule out an area. One day I climbed Brown Basin, another I hiked up Bear Creek, then Cascade and even Jojo Creek. There's no real reason to do the boring stuff all day unless you're really pressed for time.

          Your model doesn't acknowledge that "25 days" might be only 15 search days. And not everyone maximizes their search time when BOTG. Without knowing the area Jack actually searched, I find this inconclusive.
          How long does it take to hike a mile with a 1000 foot elevation gain? (this is common average) It takes one hour. During this mile hike and if you held tunnel vision, 5 feet looking left and 5 feet looking right and no farther, in one hour you have viewed a football field. 57,600 square feet. Make this hike 3 times and your tunnel vision lessons to 3 feet, 3 inches of viewing. This is directly if front of you. Calculated, this is 3 hours. Methodical would be 6 hours. add a couple hours for difficult areas and 35° inclines, etc. and you've accomplished an 8 hour hunt.
          Why would it take you three days to search a football field size area. 2018 is not included in the football size area, only 2019 & 2020. (his 25 days searching) 12.5 days a year. This 25 days is search time and does not include travel. This is 200 hours searching the size of a football field and maybe a tad larger at 8 hours per day.
          All of my hikes were sun up to sun down, as I was determined. I am sure Jack's was also. I am sure he didn't walk out in the forest for an hour, sit on a log and burst out crying. Well maybe?
          Click image for larger version  Name:	a mile.JPG Views:	0 Size:	302.6 KB ID:	270197
          Last edited by OH!!; 03-31-2021, 09:44 AM.
          A good forger attempts to deceive the naked human eye.
          It's part of the challenge in the game he plays.

          Deceiving science in expert hands is however, practically impossible!"

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Blazingwaddles View Post
            There is a possibility that has not been considered by anybody here, which is that the search area had an extreme amount of lodgepole pine deadfall. A "normal" forest can indeed be searched rather quickly because the number of possible hiding spots are simply not that numerous. In a jumble of fallen trees, however, simply moving around becomes very difficult especially on a slope and you have to search the entire length of each log. On both sides. And move branches and possibly some smaller trunks to get close enough to check to some spots.. Without a strong method and GPS, you end up wasting a lot of time going over the same ground again and again, which is what Jack probably did a lot of.

            Also, an area the size of a football field doesn't need to be the shape of a football field. It could easily be a 1000 feet long and 50 feet wide.

            Finally, Jack might have wasted quite a bit of time looking for the blaze and not specifically for the treasure. Presumably the blaze (before being damaged) would have been at eye level or above so this is a different activity from searching all the spaces under or along fallen trees.
            Good point. In one of my search areas there was a lot of deadfall and it was extremely slow going. At times I was crawling across fallen trees while trying to avoid low hanging tree branches.

            Comment


            • #21
              Here is an article with some pictures for those who haven't seen what the forest floor can look like in a lodgepole death zone. It's almost a haystack, nobody is going to be going in there (not even a Grizzly ... maybe a forest ecologist?) and you aren't going to simply stumble across the needle ..... errrr chest. I can't think of any other Rocky Mountain setting that fits so well with what we have been told about the hiding location.

              https://www.engage-science.space/blo...the-dead-trees

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by OH!! View Post

                How long does it take to hike a mile with a 1000 foot elevation gain? (this is common average) It takes one hour. During this mile hike and if you held tunnel vision, 5 feet looking left and 5 feet looking right and no farther, in one hour you have viewed a football field. 57,600 square feet. Make this hike 3 times and your tunnel vision lessons to 3 feet, 3 inches of viewing. This is directly if front of you. Calculated, this is 3 hours. Methodical would be 6 hours. add a couple hours for difficult areas and 35° inclines, etc. and you've accomplished an 8 hour hunt.
                Why would it take you three days to search a football field size area. 2018 is not included in the football size area, only 2019 & 2020. (his 25 days searching) 12.5 days a year. This 25 days is search time and does not include travel. This is 200 hours searching the size of a football field and maybe a tad larger at 8 hours per day.
                All of my hikes were sun up to sun down, as I was determined. I am sure Jack's was also. I am sure he didn't walk out in the forest for an hour, sit on a log and burst out crying. Well maybe?
                Click image for larger version Name:	a mile.JPG Views:	0 Size:	302.6 KB ID:	270197
                Never mind, I'm sure you some great times with your family hiking though.

                25 days searching? I always assumed JackHammer was eluding to the 25th day.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Blazingwaddles View Post
                  There is a possibility that has not been considered by anybody here, which is that the search area had an extreme amount of lodgepole pine deadfall. A "normal" forest can indeed be searched rather quickly because the number of possible hiding spots are simply not that numerous. In a jumble of fallen trees, however, simply moving around becomes very difficult especially on a slope and you have to search the entire length of each log. On both sides. And move branches and possibly some smaller trunks to get close enough to check to some spots.. Without a strong method and GPS, you end up wasting a lot of time going over the same ground again and again, which is what Jack probably did a lot of.

                  Also, an area the size of a football field doesn't need to be the shape of a football field. It could easily be a 1000 feet long and 50 feet wide.

                  Finally, Jack might have wasted quite a bit of time looking for the blaze and not specifically for the treasure. Presumably the blaze (before being damaged) would have been at eye level or above so this is a different activity from searching all the spaces under or along fallen trees.
                  As it stands right now according to his football field size location, it took him 8 hours to search 2,300 sqft This is going by searching for 8 hours a day. If someone hid your laptop, but left it partially visible to see, just as the chest in a really messy 2300 square foot home, how long would it take you to find it? Would it take you 8 hours to find the laptop? Here is a 72 second bedroom search animation for the laptop using square foot by square foot. This is equal to Jack's search. Ha-ha, I am having fun with this. A 12 second stare at 1 square foot.
                  Click image for larger version  Name:	bedroom.gif Views:	6 Size:	195.5 KB ID:	270259
                  The problem with the blaze in my opinion is, Jack stated that he was positive with all of the clues after he decided the blaze was damaged. If you are 100% certain of your location, you don't need the blaze. You just search by square foot, DONE!
                  Last edited by OH!!; 03-31-2021, 01:30 PM.
                  A good forger attempts to deceive the naked human eye.
                  It's part of the challenge in the game he plays.

                  Deceiving science in expert hands is however, practically impossible!"

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by OH!! View Post

                    Why would it take you three days to search a football field size area.?
                    Because I don't spend 8 hours/day searching! Few searchers do.

                    That wasn't a hypothetical. I'm giving you the actual data from my own BOTG searchers. Many other searchers do not spend their entire day searching either. It's easy to burn 15 days in the same area for someone like me.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      So "knowing what he knew about the location" allowed him to imagine what the "blaze" would have looked like before it was damaged by some kind of natural event? An event Forrest didn't anticipate or plan for, given he probably knew more about the location than Jack did? It's hard to believe that the clues in the poem were intended only to lead one to a specific patch of forest, with the bulk of the solution relying on one's ability to divine a blaze from a jumble of detritus.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by OH!! View Post

                        As it stands right now according to his football field size location, it took him 8 hours to search 2,300 sqft This is going by searching for 8 hours a day. If someone hid your laptop, but left it partially visible to see, just as the chest in a really messy 2300 square foot home, how long would it take you to find it? Would it take you 8 hours to find the laptop? Here is a 72 second bedroom search animation for the laptop using square foot by square foot. This is equal to Jack's search. Ha-ha, I am having fun with this. A 12 second stare at 1 square foot.
                        Click image for larger version Name:	bedroom.gif Views:	6 Size:	195.5 KB ID:	270259
                        The problem with the blaze in my opinion is, Jack stated that he was positive with all of the clues after he decided the blaze was damaged. If you are 100% certain of your location, you don't need the blaze. You just search by square foot, DONE!
                        I don't disagree with the gist of what you are saying. Obviously it wouldn't take 25 days x 8 hours (200 hours) to search even the most unforgiving football field sized terrain 1 square foot at a time. It still could be that Jack only ended up spending a very small amount of time effectively searching for the chest in any sort of comprehensive way.

                        Consider the very strong possibility that the "nook" was actually a small gap between two logs or pieces of wood. You might have to be over the top of it at the exact right angle in order to see it, and therefore "find the blaze" = being in that exact position when you are to "look quickly down".

                        Now, if your search doesn't involve climbing on top and balancing on each piece of wood and scanning around you 360 degrees at every single step, then you are possibly going to miss the chest. This is not at all like walking through a house or a standard forest. Methodical searching would still lead you to the chest eventually but it would be much more involved than your examples.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by thehomeofBrown.com View Post

                          Because I don't spend 8 hours/day searching! Few searchers do.

                          That wasn't a hypothetical. I'm giving you the actual data from my own BOTG searchers. Many other searchers do not spend their entire day searching either. It's easy to burn 15 days in the same area for someone like me.
                          I do realize my theory is also hypothetical, but searching a football field size area is my main issue. Even if you spent one hour a day for 25 days searching, it just doesn't work.
                          A good forger attempts to deceive the naked human eye.
                          It's part of the challenge in the game he plays.

                          Deceiving science in expert hands is however, practically impossible!"

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            You've made your point, OH!!, and I think it is a good one. But there will always be a way to rationalize even the most implausible of scenarios. Remember, there are those who really believe that Forrest Fenn in his youth collected pieces of string, tied them together end to end, and made a ball so large that it wouldn't fit through his bedroom door. Anything is POSSIBLE, so we have to leave it that Jack's answers are highly unlikely. But when you have multiple things that are highly unlikely, the odds against all of them being true becomes astronomical. So I think the best we will ever be able to do is to assert that, statistically, it is almost certain that Jack is not telling the truth.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Spoon View Post
                              You've made your point, OH!!, and I think it is a good one. But there will always be a way to rationalize even the most implausible of scenarios. Remember, there are those who really believe that Forrest Fenn in his youth collected pieces of string, tied them together end to end, and made a ball so large that it wouldn't fit through his bedroom door. Anything is POSSIBLE, so we have to leave it that Jack's answers are highly unlikely. But when you have multiple things that are highly unlikely, the odds against all of them being true becomes astronomical. So I think the best we will ever be able to do is to assert that, statistically, it is almost certain that Jack is not telling the truth.
                              I think this logic is faulty. We know why Forresf would exaggerate about the ball of string and in fact knowing this helps us to better see his point. So, why would Jack say he searched a football field area for 25 days? Let's assume for sake of argument the man is not entirely stupid.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Blazingwaddles View Post

                                I think this logic is faulty. We know why Forresf would exaggerate about the ball of string and in fact knowing this helps us to better see his point. So, why would Jack say he searched a football field area for 25 days? Let's assume for sake of argument the man is not entirely stupid.
                                For starters, it's more likely to be about 15 actual search days because of the time required to travel to and from the search area.

                                Comment

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