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The Dunning Kruger Effect In The Chase

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  • kpro
    replied
    Stop it on this thread and others, if I have to go through each post, I will and make the calls on who to ban.

    Leave a comment:


  • ORION
    replied
    Originally posted by JChere View Post
    I play guitar for the chicks
    I play guitar for the...oh, wait. I don't play guitar.

    O.

    Leave a comment:


  • ORION
    replied
    Originally posted by Outkast Searcher View Post

    He has zero experience in creating a treasure hunt with clues that will logically reveal the location...there is no reason to believe he was successful at this.

    What are everyone else's thoughts...?
    I would guess that Forrest was able to use transferable skills in architecting his poem.

    To illustrate, perhaps during his time in Santa Fe, Forrest came into contact with hundreds of visitors to the city - folks who were not familiar with the best hotels, restaurants or shops. Maybe one or two of these hundreds of people --thousands, maybe, over fifteen plus years -- maybe one asked Forrest to direct them to the finest restaurant in town. Let's call this restaurant...I don't know, say...Indulgence. And, you know, let's even say no one asked Forrest, but during the course of at least one of these thousand of conversations, someone with whom he was speaking mentioned to another person in the group that they should be going so they could do a little shopping before dinner. Forrest, knowing from the conversation that these folks were not familiar with restaurants in town, might offer, without being asked, information on his own favorite restaurant - Indulgence. Maybe this was a small, out of the way place not visited by many tourists but this place had specials that he enjoyed - his (culinary) treasures. He so enjoyed this place that he would even go alone at times. Forrest might say something like, "You know what, I don't know what your taste is, but if you like rich foods, whether old style or new dishes, there is a special place; I can tell you how to get there. It's called Indulgence.

    From that point, Forrest would provide these strangers directions that, if they followed, would lead them to Indulgence. Of course, Forrest knows were this special place is and he knows from where he, or in this case, the strangers, will be starting their quest. With the starting and ending points known to Forrest, he could reverse engineer the path by looking forward to Indulgence, but working backward to the starting point to create the directions that he would then give the strangers.

    Of course, in the above illustration, Forrest would provide black and white instructions that would lead the people directly to Indulgence. It might take him 2 or 3 minutes to determine the path and give it to these future visitors to Indulgence. These folks have an advantage over participants in the Chase in that they have the starting point, whereas Searchers do not know where to begin.

    With the above considered, I think that Forrest has more than enough ability to write down the directions to Indulgence - a direct route - in just a few minutes and then, over the course of fifteen years, craft a poem (of seemingly simple words) that would provide clues in place of direct statements.

    If I look at the Chase in this simplified manner, it gives me more than enough reason to believe that Forrest was, in deed, successful.

    But, you know: academia...education...et cetera.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ro16WgM1IE

    Peace,

    Orion, the Hunter

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  • khan
    replied
    BAN

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  • wwwamericana
    replied
    Remember y'all - if the Pilot goes out, the warm waters halt.
    Just sayin.....

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  • Anna Graham
    replied
    Originally posted by Old Pilot View Post
    Sometimes I wonder whether someone pretends to be arguing with themselves on here (using different handles) to create drama. Oh, well, whatever. I'm not here for drama. I'm here to search
    for evidence of how far along in solving the poem people are. People are largely the same. We are "wired" for survival and reproduction. Not much else. What appears to not relate to those
    things may well be part of them, although it may not be clearly that. I tink it's normal/natural to want "validation", which to me means "approval" for what we did. We grew up learning to seek
    this, and it stays with us all our lives. But it doesn't have to be a problem in all cases. In some, perhaps it has become one. In the case of FF, I tink that he has shown that he is -- and has been,
    for a long time -- capable of doing admirable things. I don't know how much good "his legacy" will do him after he's no longer physically alive. Maybe it'll help his descendants, who are probably
    friends of his. So that could be a noble thing to do. Let's tell him this now, so he can relish the approval. And let's tell his descendants, so they can relish whatever part of it is applicable.
    In the “Stage 3 Alert” thread initiated by pef, Coinaster asked Kpro to cross reference ip addresses. I think it is one individual stirring up trouble, with incendiary comments. I also would like to see a crackdown Kpro.

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  • LaQuifa Jones
    replied
    Excuse ME. Dont be comin at me callin me no DRAMA jus because of my skin tone. Yeah, like I don NO how you do. Don address ME as a represenative of my PEOPLE> I been watchin you sling hate to long on here so if you cant take the HEAT get out the kitchen! An you wanna adress me, then say it to my FACE

    Leave a comment:


  • Old Pilot
    replied
    Sometimes I wonder whether someone pretends to be arguing with themselves on here (using different handles) to create drama. Oh, well, whatever. I'm not here for drama. I'm here to search
    for evidence of how far along in solving the poem people are. People are largely the same. We are "wired" for survival and reproduction. Not much else. What appears to not relate to those
    things may well be part of them, although it may not be clearly that. I tink it's normal/natural to want "validation", which to me means "approval" for what we did. We grew up learning to seek
    this, and it stays with us all our lives. But it doesn't have to be a problem in all cases. In some, perhaps it has become one. In the case of FF, I tink that he has shown that he is -- and has been,
    for a long time -- capable of doing admirable things. I don't know how much good "his legacy" will do him after he's no longer physically alive. Maybe it'll help his descendants, who are probably
    friends of his. So that could be a noble thing to do. Let's tell him this now, so he can relish the approval. And let's tell his descendants, so they can relish whatever part of it is applicable.

    Leave a comment:


  • LaQuifa Jones
    replied
    Originally posted by Old Pilot View Post

    Please "go easy" on the name-calling.
    I'm about fed up with this White Nationalist propganda bein shoved down the people throat. Enuff already!

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  • Old Pilot
    replied
    Originally posted by Pastor Ebenezer Fuzz View Post

    What's this, finally a soft side to our favorite little meretricious tart?

    JC, congrats on inspiring an unbelievable 'turnaround.' You are truly a Graham-cracker.
    The lord works in mysterious wheys. You must have scourged her with your ...

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    Please "go easy" on the name-calling.

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  • Old Pilot
    replied
    Originally posted by Anna Graham

    Normally I think you're a pompous ass, but I agree with you on this. Hows that for a backhanded compliment?
    Please "go easy" on the name-calling.

    Leave a comment:


  • Quest
    replied
    Originally posted by Outkast Searcher View Post
    This is a topic I have long thought about ever since I started this little hobby (hobby is a key word). The Dunning Kruger Effect is a psychological phenomenon where people's cognitive bias makes them believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. There is a lot of talk about "confirmation bias" in The Chase, but not much about cognitive bias.

    There are three main areas that the Dunning Kruger Effect is prevalent in The Chase.
    1. Searchers
    2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities"
    3. Forrest Fenn

    This post won't make me any friends, but I see this phenomenon growing more and more so I figured it's time to put it out there.

    1. Searchers:
    This category is most likely the easiest to see. Searchers are notorious for thinking they are right, their solve is correct and everyone's else is garbage. This happens even outside of solves, what the clues are or what different clues mean. There are people that have so much cognitive bias that they still believe in their solve even after they go BOTG and the don't find the chest, they will come up with reasons why their solve is still correct. Either someone else has found it first or Forrest Fenn has retrieved it. We have just recently seen a searcher sue Forrest Fenn blaming Forrest for not finding the chest. That is an easy example to see, and yet most searchers who are criticizing this person for suing Forrest Fenn can't see their own cognitive bias.

    2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities":
    This category has some of the worst examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect. If it wasn't for Forrest Fenn himself, this group would take the top spot.

    I watch a lot of the Fenn youtubers...for entertainment. I need something to listen to while I work and since this is my hobby, it is entertaining to listen to people talk about it. In the beginning, there was a lot of good content...until one well known channel started to dominate the scene and approach this as a business. Youtube was much better when it was just Searchers making a video and talking about their thoughts. It has turned into a few live shows that believe they are the authorities in The Chase. You can go and watch any of these popular live shows and see the Dunning Kruger Effect live.

    During most shows, any of the shows, they hosts will say "these are just our opinions" or "we aren't saying we are an authority on this"...and they will ALWAYS say this right before they crap on someone else’s ideas/thoughts/interpretation. The one topic they all hate is when one of their lowely viewers dare to claim they have the correct solve, that will set them all off as if their mother was just personally insulted. But they don't realize that by them showing their disdain for searcher who think they have the correct solve, that they are just showing their arrogance. Arrogance is a big part of the Dunning Kruger Effect. Most of these Youtubers/Chase "celebrities" exhibit the Dunning Kruger Effect, they often display their bias in thinking they are more capable and smarter than their viewers.

    However, they get quotes wrong daily, they misrepresent information, and they generally have more BOTG and are more serious than other searchers...and yet they haven't found the chest either. IMO, the biggest reason for this is because these Youtubers have stopped having this be a hobby and are trying to make this a business.

    3. Forrest Fenn:
    This is where I will probably get in trouble. Forrest Fenn is the biggest example of the Dunning Kruger Effect in The Chase. Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. This is by his own admission; he repeatedly says he barely got through school and knew he couldn't make it in college. One of the driving forces for the Dunning Kruger Effect is validation. Forrest Fenn's entire life has been him looking for validation. His stories are constantly demonstrating how he feels inadequate and is looking for validation. He shows disdain for rich kids when he was younger, for college educated people all the time, for academic archeologist. He is constantly looking for validation throughout his life from his father, brother, friends, military, celebrities, and now from Searchers. And the thing is, he has NEVER received validation, and this is what the entire treasure hunt is about...his last attempt at validation. Let's just look at his life as we know it.

    As a young kid, he wasn't good in school, he wasn't as admired as his older brother, and he wasn't as adored as his younger sister. In his middle years, he still had no validation from school, he attempted to be a collector of useless items to give himself some validation, and if you read between the lines...he had no friends at home, which is why he loved Yellowstone so much. As a young adult, he tried to tag along to college and was run out, and so like so many other young men with no plans for the future, he joined the military. I think in the military he finally found some validation due to the structure and rank process. It was the first time he could feel validated.

    However, he slowly realized it was empty validation, he fought in the one war that the United States lost, the population didn't respect those fighting in Vietnam, there were more protests about people like him over there killing people than there were people supporting them. He was shot down twice and it hurt his ego. When he left the Military, he realized like most ex-military realize...his Military accolades did not carry over to civilian life. No one cared about what he did in the Military. H

    e went into the art business not because he loved art but because he saw it as an opportunity, and by all accounts he was an unscrupulous art dealer. He openly sold fakes, bought and sold Native American artifacts on the black market, and even bought his own archeological site just to strip it of artifacts to sell. This brought him some validation and the attention of celebrities which he adored. Although, after his peak time in his art business, just like everything else in his life that brought him temporary validation...the celebrities no longer cared about him. They used him because he was trendy, then went on with their lives, leaving Fenn as an afterthought.

    Forrest Fenn also seems to seek validation from women, a lot of stories of female celebrities and everyone knows that most of his Searcher contacts are with females. Unfortunately, the women in his life that should be closest to him...his wife and daughters seem to be missing the most in his stories. Even in his book, the chapter dedicated to his wife is at the end almost as if it was an afterthought, it just doesn't fit with the rest of the book.

    So this entire treasure hunt is about Forrest Fenn looking for validation.

    I got off track there a little, just demonstrating how Fenn's desire for validation has driven his entire life. And like I said, seeking validation is a big driving force in the Dunning Kruger Effect. In Forrest Fenn, it has created this alternate view of himself inside his own mind. He THINKS he is a maverick, even though his life isn't really that different than many others. Also, if someone is truly a "maverick", they don't call themselves a maverick or even realize they are one. How many times have you heard Fenn say something then ask his audience "Aren't I such a maverick"? This is not normal behavior; it is the behavior of someone seeking validation. He THINKS academia is overrated, which makes him believe he is better than them. He THINKS education is overrated, making think he is smarter than he is. So we have a fairly arrogant person who is below average intelligence that THINKS he is above average (way above average) creating a treasure hunt with clues in a poem. He has zero experience in creating a treasure hunt with clues that will logically reveal the location...there is no reason to believe he was successful at this.


    So there it is, there are my observations. This is why I believe this hunt hasn't been solved and most likely won't be solved.

    What are everyone else's thoughts, what examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect do you see in The Chase?
    That was too funny !
    A cognitive bias tant about cognitive bias.

    The best part is why you can't solve the poem is because of the inadequacies of the poem creator.

    ROTFLMAO !

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  • dejoka
    replied
    My thought is that the op is a classic case of sour grapes.

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  • Anna Graham
    replied
    Originally posted by chesttroll View Post

    Looks like that flew over everybody's head in your post. I once thought the same thing on that memoir, but lucky for me, I changed my strategy.
    Lucky you.

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  • chesttroll
    replied
    Originally posted by Anna Graham View Post
    Good topic. Best OP, I've seen in a long time. I think you make some very pertinent points. I disagree with one point however, that Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. While he doesn't have the degrees or any letters attached to his name; I think he is a renaissance man, he is a self educated man and an expert in a lot of fields. Archaeology, clovis points, native American history (particularly during the 19th century). He is an expert on Joseph Henry Sharp, Nicolai Fechin, Leon Gaspard, Eric Sloane, and his yet to be published memoir of Chief Joseph, that sits in the chest. And he has published a poem and hidden a treasure that has eluded some of the best minds for ten years. Never underestimate the genius of Forrest Fenn.
    Looks like that flew over everybody's head in your post. I once thought the same thing on that memoir, but lucky for me, I changed my strategy.

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