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  • The Dunning Kruger Effect In The Chase

    This is a topic I have long thought about ever since I started this little hobby (hobby is a key word). The Dunning Kruger Effect is a psychological phenomenon where people's cognitive bias makes them believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. There is a lot of talk about "confirmation bias" in The Chase, but not much about cognitive bias.

    There are three main areas that the Dunning Kruger Effect is prevalent in The Chase.
    1. Searchers
    2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities"
    3. Forrest Fenn

    This post won't make me any friends, but I see this phenomenon growing more and more so I figured it's time to put it out there.

    1. Searchers:
    This category is most likely the easiest to see. Searchers are notorious for thinking they are right, their solve is correct and everyone's else is garbage. This happens even outside of solves, what the clues are or what different clues mean. There are people that have so much cognitive bias that they still believe in their solve even after they go BOTG and the don't find the chest, they will come up with reasons why their solve is still correct. Either someone else has found it first or Forrest Fenn has retrieved it. We have just recently seen a searcher sue Forrest Fenn blaming Forrest for not finding the chest. That is an easy example to see, and yet most searchers who are criticizing this person for suing Forrest Fenn can't see their own cognitive bias.

    2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities":
    This category has some of the worst examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect. If it wasn't for Forrest Fenn himself, this group would take the top spot.

    I watch a lot of the Fenn youtubers...for entertainment. I need something to listen to while I work and since this is my hobby, it is entertaining to listen to people talk about it. In the beginning, there was a lot of good content...until one well known channel started to dominate the scene and approach this as a business. Youtube was much better when it was just Searchers making a video and talking about their thoughts. It has turned into a few live shows that believe they are the authorities in The Chase. You can go and watch any of these popular live shows and see the Dunning Kruger Effect live.

    During most shows, any of the shows, they hosts will say "these are just our opinions" or "we aren't saying we are an authority on this"...and they will ALWAYS say this right before they crap on someone else’s ideas/thoughts/interpretation. The one topic they all hate is when one of their lowely viewers dare to claim they have the correct solve, that will set them all off as if their mother was just personally insulted. But they don't realize that by them showing their disdain for searcher who think they have the correct solve, that they are just showing their arrogance. Arrogance is a big part of the Dunning Kruger Effect. Most of these Youtubers/Chase "celebrities" exhibit the Dunning Kruger Effect, they often display their bias in thinking they are more capable and smarter than their viewers.

    However, they get quotes wrong daily, they misrepresent information, and they generally have more BOTG and are more serious than other searchers...and yet they haven't found the chest either. IMO, the biggest reason for this is because these Youtubers have stopped having this be a hobby and are trying to make this a business.

    3. Forrest Fenn:
    This is where I will probably get in trouble. Forrest Fenn is the biggest example of the Dunning Kruger Effect in The Chase. Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. This is by his own admission; he repeatedly says he barely got through school and knew he couldn't make it in college. One of the driving forces for the Dunning Kruger Effect is validation. Forrest Fenn's entire life has been him looking for validation. His stories are constantly demonstrating how he feels inadequate and is looking for validation. He shows disdain for rich kids when he was younger, for college educated people all the time, for academic archeologist. He is constantly looking for validation throughout his life from his father, brother, friends, military, celebrities, and now from Searchers. And the thing is, he has NEVER received validation, and this is what the entire treasure hunt is about...his last attempt at validation. Let's just look at his life as we know it.

    As a young kid, he wasn't good in school, he wasn't as admired as his older brother, and he wasn't as adored as his younger sister. In his middle years, he still had no validation from school, he attempted to be a collector of useless items to give himself some validation, and if you read between the lines...he had no friends at home, which is why he loved Yellowstone so much. As a young adult, he tried to tag along to college and was run out, and so like so many other young men with no plans for the future, he joined the military. I think in the military he finally found some validation due to the structure and rank process. It was the first time he could feel validated.

    However, he slowly realized it was empty validation, he fought in the one war that the United States lost, the population didn't respect those fighting in Vietnam, there were more protests about people like him over there killing people than there were people supporting them. He was shot down twice and it hurt his ego. When he left the Military, he realized like most ex-military realize...his Military accolades did not carry over to civilian life. No one cared about what he did in the Military. H

    e went into the art business not because he loved art but because he saw it as an opportunity, and by all accounts he was an unscrupulous art dealer. He openly sold fakes, bought and sold Native American artifacts on the black market, and even bought his own archeological site just to strip it of artifacts to sell. This brought him some validation and the attention of celebrities which he adored. Although, after his peak time in his art business, just like everything else in his life that brought him temporary validation...the celebrities no longer cared about him. They used him because he was trendy, then went on with their lives, leaving Fenn as an afterthought.

    Forrest Fenn also seems to seek validation from women, a lot of stories of female celebrities and everyone knows that most of his Searcher contacts are with females. Unfortunately, the women in his life that should be closest to him...his wife and daughters seem to be missing the most in his stories. Even in his book, the chapter dedicated to his wife is at the end almost as if it was an afterthought, it just doesn't fit with the rest of the book.

    So this entire treasure hunt is about Forrest Fenn looking for validation.

    I got off track there a little, just demonstrating how Fenn's desire for validation has driven his entire life. And like I said, seeking validation is a big driving force in the Dunning Kruger Effect. In Forrest Fenn, it has created this alternate view of himself inside his own mind. He THINKS he is a maverick, even though his life isn't really that different than many others. Also, if someone is truly a "maverick", they don't call themselves a maverick or even realize they are one. How many times have you heard Fenn say something then ask his audience "Aren't I such a maverick"? This is not normal behavior; it is the behavior of someone seeking validation. He THINKS academia is overrated, which makes him believe he is better than them. He THINKS education is overrated, making think he is smarter than he is. So we have a fairly arrogant person who is below average intelligence that THINKS he is above average (way above average) creating a treasure hunt with clues in a poem. He has zero experience in creating a treasure hunt with clues that will logically reveal the location...there is no reason to believe he was successful at this.


    So there it is, there are my observations. This is why I believe this hunt hasn't been solved and most likely won't be solved.

    What are everyone else's thoughts, what examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect do you see in The Chase?


  • #2
    I think this is a below average intelligence analysis of a highly intelligent man with many respected accomplishments.

    Comment


    • #3
      You bring up some very good points as I have always been of the opinion that f did not do this to get people out in the wilderness he did this to create the one thing he always wanted, 'a legacy' the getting people out into the mountains was just a public pleaser. A facade. But as for this most likely never being solved, I believe it will be solved, perhaps not in f's lifetime, but sooner than he anticipated because, I believe he underestimates people in general. That's something the wealthy have always done through history. Don't misunderstand. I think this was well thought out and planned to have a lasting legacy for f but I do believe his arrogance in wanting to be just a big a part with his interactions has led to too many mistakes on his part.
      Last edited by JChere; 03-17-2020, 12:16 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        The Dung Kingger effect has caused me much suffering over the y-ears. It's why after each felled outing I make sure and rock out to this:
        (I also sometimes wear one of those paper Burger-King crowns to my search area, just to drive the point home)

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Outkast Searcher View Post
          This is a topic I have long thought about ever since I started this little hobby (hobby is a key word). The Dunning Kruger Effect is a psychological phenomenon where people's cognitive bias makes them believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. There is a lot of talk about "confirmation bias" in The Chase, but not much about cognitive bias.

          There are three main areas that the Dunning Kruger Effect is prevalent in The Chase.
          1. Searchers
          2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities"
          3. Forrest Fenn

          This post won't make me any friends, but I see this phenomenon growing more and more so I figured it's time to put it out there.

          1. Searchers:
          This category is most likely the easiest to see. Searchers are notorious for thinking they are right, their solve is correct and everyone's else is garbage. This happens even outside of solves, what the clues are or what different clues mean. There are people that have so much cognitive bias that they still believe in their solve even after they go BOTG and the don't find the chest, they will come up with reasons why their solve is still correct. Either someone else has found it first or Forrest Fenn has retrieved it. We have just recently seen a searcher sue Forrest Fenn blaming Forrest for not finding the chest. That is an easy example to see, and yet most searchers who are criticizing this person for suing Forrest Fenn can't see their own cognitive bias.

          2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities":
          This category has some of the worst examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect. If it wasn't for Forrest Fenn himself, this group would take the top spot.

          I watch a lot of the Fenn youtubers...for entertainment. I need something to listen to while I work and since this is my hobby, it is entertaining to listen to people talk about it. In the beginning, there was a lot of good content...until one well known channel started to dominate the scene and approach this as a business. Youtube was much better when it was just Searchers making a video and talking about their thoughts. It has turned into a few live shows that believe they are the authorities in The Chase. You can go and watch any of these popular live shows and see the Dunning Kruger Effect live.

          During most shows, any of the shows, they hosts will say "these are just our opinions" or "we aren't saying we are an authority on this"...and they will ALWAYS say this right before they crap on someone else’s ideas/thoughts/interpretation. The one topic they all hate is when one of their lowely viewers dare to claim they have the correct solve, that will set them all off as if their mother was just personally insulted. But they don't realize that by them showing their disdain for searcher who think they have the correct solve, that they are just showing their arrogance. Arrogance is a big part of the Dunning Kruger Effect. Most of these Youtubers/Chase "celebrities" exhibit the Dunning Kruger Effect, they often display their bias in thinking they are more capable and smarter than their viewers.

          However, they get quotes wrong daily, they misrepresent information, and they generally have more BOTG and are more serious than other searchers...and yet they haven't found the chest either. IMO, the biggest reason for this is because these Youtubers have stopped having this be a hobby and are trying to make this a business.

          3. Forrest Fenn:
          This is where I will probably get in trouble. Forrest Fenn is the biggest example of the Dunning Kruger Effect in The Chase. Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. This is by his own admission; he repeatedly says he barely got through school and knew he couldn't make it in college. One of the driving forces for the Dunning Kruger Effect is validation. Forrest Fenn's entire life has been him looking for validation. His stories are constantly demonstrating how he feels inadequate and is looking for validation. He shows disdain for rich kids when he was younger, for college educated people all the time, for academic archeologist. He is constantly looking for validation throughout his life from his father, brother, friends, military, celebrities, and now from Searchers. And the thing is, he has NEVER received validation, and this is what the entire treasure hunt is about...his last attempt at validation. Let's just look at his life as we know it.

          As a young kid, he wasn't good in school, he wasn't as admired as his older brother, and he wasn't as adored as his younger sister. In his middle years, he still had no validation from school, he attempted to be a collector of useless items to give himself some validation, and if you read between the lines...he had no friends at home, which is why he loved Yellowstone so much. As a young adult, he tried to tag along to college and was run out, and so like so many other young men with no plans for the future, he joined the military. I think in the military he finally found some validation due to the structure and rank process. It was the first time he could feel validated.

          However, he slowly realized it was empty validation, he fought in the one war that the United States lost, the population didn't respect those fighting in Vietnam, there were more protests about people like him over there killing people than there were people supporting them. He was shot down twice and it hurt his ego. When he left the Military, he realized like most ex-military realize...his Military accolades did not carry over to civilian life. No one cared about what he did in the Military. H

          e went into the art business not because he loved art but because he saw it as an opportunity, and by all accounts he was an unscrupulous art dealer. He openly sold fakes, bought and sold Native American artifacts on the black market, and even bought his own archeological site just to strip it of artifacts to sell. This brought him some validation and the attention of celebrities which he adored. Although, after his peak time in his art business, just like everything else in his life that brought him temporary validation...the celebrities no longer cared about him. They used him because he was trendy, then went on with their lives, leaving Fenn as an afterthought.

          Forrest Fenn also seems to seek validation from women, a lot of stories of female celebrities and everyone knows that most of his Searcher contacts are with females. Unfortunately, the women in his life that should be closest to him...his wife and daughters seem to be missing the most in his stories. Even in his book, the chapter dedicated to his wife is at the end almost as if it was an afterthought, it just doesn't fit with the rest of the book.

          So this entire treasure hunt is about Forrest Fenn looking for validation.

          I got off track there a little, just demonstrating how Fenn's desire for validation has driven his entire life. And like I said, seeking validation is a big driving force in the Dunning Kruger Effect. In Forrest Fenn, it has created this alternate view of himself inside his own mind. He THINKS he is a maverick, even though his life isn't really that different than many others. Also, if someone is truly a "maverick", they don't call themselves a maverick or even realize they are one. How many times have you heard Fenn say something then ask his audience "Aren't I such a maverick"? This is not normal behavior; it is the behavior of someone seeking validation. He THINKS academia is overrated, which makes him believe he is better than them. He THINKS education is overrated, making think he is smarter than he is. So we have a fairly arrogant person who is below average intelligence that THINKS he is above average (way above average) creating a treasure hunt with clues in a poem. He has zero experience in creating a treasure hunt with clues that will logically reveal the location...there is no reason to believe he was successful at this.


          So there it is, there are my observations. This is why I believe this hunt hasn't been solved and most likely won't be solved.

          What are everyone else's thoughts, what examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect do you see in The Chase?
          ive noticed ppl who talk alot dont usually say much and do even less

          Comment


          • #6
            I hope you feel better about yourself having said all of that. What I hope for more is that you can find true happiness within once you find out you are wrong about Forrest.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Outkast Searcher View Post
              This is a topic I have long thought about ever since I started this little hobby (hobby is a key word). The Dunning Kruger Effect is a psychological phenomenon where people's cognitive bias makes them believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. There is a lot of talk about "confirmation bias" in The Chase, but not much about cognitive bias.

              There are three main areas that the Dunning Kruger Effect is prevalent in The Chase.
              1. Searchers
              2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities"
              3. Forrest Fenn

              This post won't make me any friends, but I see this phenomenon growing more and more so I figured it's time to put it out there.

              1. Searchers:
              This category is most likely the easiest to see. Searchers are notorious for thinking they are right, their solve is correct and everyone's else is garbage. This happens even outside of solves, what the clues are or what different clues mean. There are people that have so much cognitive bias that they still believe in their solve even after they go BOTG and the don't find the chest, they will come up with reasons why their solve is still correct. Either someone else has found it first or Forrest Fenn has retrieved it. We have just recently seen a searcher sue Forrest Fenn blaming Forrest for not finding the chest. That is an easy example to see, and yet most searchers who are criticizing this person for suing Forrest Fenn can't see their own cognitive bias.

              2. Youtubers/Chase "celebrities":
              This category has some of the worst examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect. If it wasn't for Forrest Fenn himself, this group would take the top spot.

              I watch a lot of the Fenn youtubers...for entertainment. I need something to listen to while I work and since this is my hobby, it is entertaining to listen to people talk about it. In the beginning, there was a lot of good content...until one well known channel started to dominate the scene and approach this as a business. Youtube was much better when it was just Searchers making a video and talking about their thoughts. It has turned into a few live shows that believe they are the authorities in The Chase. You can go and watch any of these popular live shows and see the Dunning Kruger Effect live.

              During most shows, any of the shows, they hosts will say "these are just our opinions" or "we aren't saying we are an authority on this"...and they will ALWAYS say this right before they crap on someone else’s ideas/thoughts/interpretation. The one topic they all hate is when one of their lowely viewers dare to claim they have the correct solve, that will set them all off as if their mother was just personally insulted. But they don't realize that by them showing their disdain for searcher who think they have the correct solve, that they are just showing their arrogance. Arrogance is a big part of the Dunning Kruger Effect. Most of these Youtubers/Chase "celebrities" exhibit the Dunning Kruger Effect, they often display their bias in thinking they are more capable and smarter than their viewers.

              However, they get quotes wrong daily, they misrepresent information, and they generally have more BOTG and are more serious than other searchers...and yet they haven't found the chest either. IMO, the biggest reason for this is because these Youtubers have stopped having this be a hobby and are trying to make this a business.

              3. Forrest Fenn:
              This is where I will probably get in trouble. Forrest Fenn is the biggest example of the Dunning Kruger Effect in The Chase. Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. This is by his own admission; he repeatedly says he barely got through school and knew he couldn't make it in college. One of the driving forces for the Dunning Kruger Effect is validation. Forrest Fenn's entire life has been him looking for validation. His stories are constantly demonstrating how he feels inadequate and is looking for validation. He shows disdain for rich kids when he was younger, for college educated people all the time, for academic archeologist. He is constantly looking for validation throughout his life from his father, brother, friends, military, celebrities, and now from Searchers. And the thing is, he has NEVER received validation, and this is what the entire treasure hunt is about...his last attempt at validation. Let's just look at his life as we know it.

              As a young kid, he wasn't good in school, he wasn't as admired as his older brother, and he wasn't as adored as his younger sister. In his middle years, he still had no validation from school, he attempted to be a collector of useless items to give himself some validation, and if you read between the lines...he had no friends at home, which is why he loved Yellowstone so much. As a young adult, he tried to tag along to college and was run out, and so like so many other young men with no plans for the future, he joined the military. I think in the military he finally found some validation due to the structure and rank process. It was the first time he could feel validated.

              However, he slowly realized it was empty validation, he fought in the one war that the United States lost, the population didn't respect those fighting in Vietnam, there were more protests about people like him over there killing people than there were people supporting them. He was shot down twice and it hurt his ego. When he left the Military, he realized like most ex-military realize...his Military accolades did not carry over to civilian life. No one cared about what he did in the Military. H

              e went into the art business not because he loved art but because he saw it as an opportunity, and by all accounts he was an unscrupulous art dealer. He openly sold fakes, bought and sold Native American artifacts on the black market, and even bought his own archeological site just to strip it of artifacts to sell. This brought him some validation and the attention of celebrities which he adored. Although, after his peak time in his art business, just like everything else in his life that brought him temporary validation...the celebrities no longer cared about him. They used him because he was trendy, then went on with their lives, leaving Fenn as an afterthought.

              Forrest Fenn also seems to seek validation from women, a lot of stories of female celebrities and everyone knows that most of his Searcher contacts are with females. Unfortunately, the women in his life that should be closest to him...his wife and daughters seem to be missing the most in his stories. Even in his book, the chapter dedicated to his wife is at the end almost as if it was an afterthought, it just doesn't fit with the rest of the book.

              So this entire treasure hunt is about Forrest Fenn looking for validation.

              I got off track there a little, just demonstrating how Fenn's desire for validation has driven his entire life. And like I said, seeking validation is a big driving force in the Dunning Kruger Effect. In Forrest Fenn, it has created this alternate view of himself inside his own mind. He THINKS he is a maverick, even though his life isn't really that different than many others. Also, if someone is truly a "maverick", they don't call themselves a maverick or even realize they are one. How many times have you heard Fenn say something then ask his audience "Aren't I such a maverick"? This is not normal behavior; it is the behavior of someone seeking validation. He THINKS academia is overrated, which makes him believe he is better than them. He THINKS education is overrated, making think he is smarter than he is. So we have a fairly arrogant person who is below average intelligence that THINKS he is above average (way above average) creating a treasure hunt with clues in a poem. He has zero experience in creating a treasure hunt with clues that will logically reveal the location...there is no reason to believe he was successful at this.


              So there it is, there are my observations. This is why I believe this hunt hasn't been solved and most likely won't be solved.

              What are everyone else's thoughts, what examples of the Dunning Kruger Effect do you see in The Chase?
              ....By chance do you have a Colorado IPO....and have you recently tried to sue him based on your above assumptions?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by JChere View Post
                You bring up some very good points as I have always been of the opinion that f did not do this to get people out in the wilderness he did this to create the one thing he always wanted, 'a legacy' the getting people out into the mountains was just a public pleaser. A facade. But as for this most likely never being solved, I believe it will be solved, perhaps not in f's lifetime, but sooner than he anticipated because, I believe he underestimates people in general. That's something the wealthy have always done through history. Don't misunderstand. I think this was well thought out and planned to have a lasting legacy for f but I do believe his arrogance in wanting to be just a big a part with his interactions has led to too many mistakes on his part.
                I completely agree.

                There is a very telling part in The Thrill Of The Chase:

                His name was William Marvin Fenn. He molded so many lives and made such a huge and far-reaching impact on the local society that I was sure everyone would remember him forever. Yet when I looked him up on Google I discovered that he’s buried alongside my mother in row 4 of block 23 at the Hillcrest Cemetery, and that s about it.
                I think that hit Forrest really hard and couldn't handle thinking that no one would remember him.

                That is what this hunt is about, Fenn trying to be remembered.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Can you tell me what is so wrong with someone wanting to be remembered? It's not like Forrest used your money to build his treasure. I think you need to look within yourself to find the answer as to why this disturbs you so.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Duster View Post
                    Can you tell me what is so wrong with someone wanting to be remembered? It's not like Forrest used your money to build his treasure. I think you need to look within yourself to find the answer as to why this disturbs you so.
                    Did I ever say I have any issue with it?

                    Seems like a few of you can't handle any criticism of Forrest Fenn.

                    I'm glad he hid the chest, it's a fun hobby. But I don't worship him like some do, I see his flaws and suspect his motivations.

                    Sometimes it feels like this is a religion and I just questioned Forrest Fenn's divinity. That's not an issue with me, that's an issue for others to overcome.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      OUT with him, I say!

                      Kast him out!

                      Oh, wait ...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        People have told me I play guitar for validation. I mean, it's Freudian or Jungian to go out the door everyday wanting something.
                        Or, psychology is nearly garbage, people should give up the armchair psych work, and leave it for the obviously traumatized that need help.
                        Questing song:
                        The Beatles "I'll Be Back"
                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K9Ij6VmOD4

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I play guitar for the chicks

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Good topic. Best OP, I've seen in a long time. I think you make some very pertinent points. I disagree with one point however, that Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. While he doesn't have the degrees or any letters attached to his name; I think he is a renaissance man, he is a self educated man and an expert in a lot of fields. Archaeology, clovis points, native American history (particularly during the 19th century). He is an expert on Joseph Henry Sharp, Nicolai Fechin, Leon Gaspard, Eric Sloane, and his yet to be published memoir of Chief Joseph, that sits in the chest. And he has published a poem and hidden a treasure that has eluded some of the best minds for ten years. Never underestimate the genius of Forrest Fenn.
                            All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
                            --Arthur Schopenhauer--

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Anna Graham View Post
                              Good topic. Best OP, I've seen in a long time. I think you make some very pertinent points. I disagree with one point however, that Forrest Fenn is not an educated nor intelligent man. While he doesn't have the degrees or any letters attached to his name; I think he is a renaissance man, he is a self educated man and an expert in a lot of fields. Archaeology, clovis points, native American history (particularly during the 19th century). He is an expert on Joseph Henry Sharp, Nicolai Fechin, Leon Gaspard, Eric Sloane, and his yet to be published memoir of Chief Joseph, that sits in the chest. And he has published a poem and hidden a treasure that has eluded some of the best minds for ten years. Never underestimate the genius of Forrest Fenn.
                              Normally I scoff and many of your comments but I agree with this one. f had to become and expert in many fields in order for his business to grow and thrive the way it did and as fast as it did thru the years. It also takes something that a lot of people don't consider, some call it taking a risk, but it is basically jumping in over head (of knowledge) and learning fast how to swim back to the top. Such as he talks about learning about art dealers from Amarillo.

                              Comment

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