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This means the end of the US PetroDollar. We're looking at a Weimar Germany scenario on steroids.Originally posted by ravenhome777 View PostComment
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In these days of constant crisis and apocalyptic doom sellers math is your friend. How does roughly $500mil reduction in offshore dollar trade constitute Weimar scenario let alone Weimar on steroids, and for whom?Originally posted by ravenhome777 View Post
Take your time. Take a breath. Explain yourself.Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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If I click on this conspiracy theory screed and promise to get real mad about central planners coming for my freedumb do I get the Alex Jones t-shirt for free?Originally posted by ravenhome777 View PostConservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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OK, so you're not going to answer. Re-read the article, which is extremely poorly written and you'll find the wholesale purchase of oil will not settle in Kenyan currency.Originally posted by whiskynovember View Post
Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Davies Chirchir said on Monday that the government signed a deal last week with Saudi Aramco to supply Kenya with diesel and super for the next six months, while Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) will deliver three cargoes of super petrol every month.........The third player selected by the government to participate in the fuel import deal that technically shelves the current open tender system hailed for bringing transparency in the oil business in Kenya is the Emirates National Oil Company Group (Enoc).......... "The proposed transaction is expected to alleviate the demand for dollars driven by petroleum imports by extending the time required to source for the dollars from the current five days to 180 days," he said.
The local, domestic retailers will be allowed to buy in Shilling from the government to government purchase.
The Kenyan government is spreading the currency risk over a 180 day spread (instead of 5 days) in order to source a better exchange. For a limited period the domestic players get a price stability feature that takes pressure off local economies.Adnoc, Aramco and Enoc will supply oil to nominated local suppliers in Kenya who will be the only ones required to pay in dollars after the six-month window. The nominated suppliers will then sell the fuel to the rest of the local players in Kenyan shillings, meaning that they will not need dollars to secure their orders anymore. The government will then shoulder the currency risk through a Letter of Support to back the nominated oil marketers that will be dealing with the Middle East oil suppliers.
You should have checked my math. Before I re-read the article I figured a half a billion bucks of lost offshore dollar demand, but it's actually $3.5billion. (7 million metric tonnes X 7.14 barrels X $70.) I apologize.
ravenhome777 You have a taste for the hysterical, the conspiracy drama, the doom-scrolling headline. The dollar system will be reformed, but it's not going to be done by the Trilateral Commission and a bunch of hawk-nose Jews who want to run your life and take your hard earned money. Relax and try to learn from it.Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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Here's something to ponder when speculating on how the dollar is going to collapse! tomorrow! and send! the! US! into! hyper-inflation!: other than the dollar what currency is going to step up and be the world's reserve currency? What sovereign asset will become what nations put their surplus balances into when they settle world trade current accounts? Chinese Yuan? Really? Will European and American governments and commercial financial entities buy Chinese government bonds to use as funding collateral all over the globe? Russia?
No, and hell no. Why?
2.8% of global transactions in 2021 were in Yuan. There's no demand for it. In 2018 Iran signed agreements to settle oil trade in Yuan. The volumes have been ridiculously low. (Russia's Ruble is even less in demand.) Recently China's GDP was around 17 trillion $US and its M2 money supply was around 40 trillion $US. Compare that to America which had 26 trillion in GDP and an M2 money supply of 21 trillion. Those ratios reveal how poorly the Chinese economy is run and how much less efficient its monetary ecology is. 37% of its GDP is in real estate and it has a shit ton of non performing loans in its banking sector which is 4X its annual GDP. By contrast, the US is a much, much more viable issuer of both currency and sovereign assets for the intermediation of world trade and the holding of current account surpluses.
As the dollar system is reformed it will be a thing of gradualism not only in markets but in governments. As much as you want this to be! a! big! deal! that they! don't! want! you! to! know! about! it isn't going to be that way. Maybe Kenya will scrape together a barter system with some energy producer, but who cares. Barter isn't scalable or stably standardized, and won't help with the service sectors of any domestic economy.
Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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Hi Whiskynovember. Sorry, just reading your posts now. I must say, I love your optimism about the future of the dollar and the US retaining global reserve status. I really, really, really hope you're correct. You make a compelling argument for sure.Originally posted by whiskynovember View Post
However, I'm seeing more and more signs of world powers collectively betting against the West. I had a thought one day. I was taking out the trash, and I started to wonder about the journey of the bag of trash I was placing in the bin. I figured it would get on the truck, then the truck would bring it to a processing plant, then the processing plant would put it on a barge, then the barge would make the long trip to China, China would receive it, and they would unload it and put it in an incinerator (and pollute their already foul air) or put it in a landfill (and pollute their already foul water). Then I thought about WHY they would do this. My only thought about WHY they would do it, is if they had plans on revenge. If they eventually would receive something much bigger in return for processing some foreign countries garbage. That is the only reason I could think why someone would agree to that arrangement. I think we now may be seeing their plans unfold. I saw this video on Fox news:
Not to say that you might not be correct. I truly, truly hope that you are!! And then some.
But I have this nagging voice in the back of my head that keeps telling me we're in a silent war. A silent war that feels like it's on the verge of going kinetic. I hope that's just my imagination.Comment
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