The stock market

[whiskynovember]

What I have heard is silver is so abundant that if the price ever slightly rises then mining and refining commences and brings the value back down. I understand what this is saying but there’s so much more to it in my mind. I’m not going to bother you folks with my opinion too much.
My thoughts are that precious metals prices are being intentionally suppressed and have been for a long time. Perhaps we’ll find real price discovery in the near future if I’m right. If I’m wrong it won’t cost much I’m guessing

The relationship between price and production drives the commodity CAPEX cycle. It's most important for oil and copper. (That's why the mantra "Drill baby, drill!" is such a display of ignorance. But hey, ignorance is central to pithy political jargon.) Precious metals are highly financialized, and that adds another layer to price distortion. I prefer to own mining companies as they present more understandable mispricing opportunities.

[lowkey]

Yeah. We bought some mining stocks fairly recently, gold and silver mostly.

[lowkey]

Hey Whisky, a bunch of big banks took a hit today. I haven’t had time to dig in yet, you hear anything?

[lowkey]

Oh wow. DB was hit for aiding and abetting a Ponzi scheme. I mean everyone that looks at this kind of stuff already knows but I can’t believe courts and media just said the quiet part out loud.

[whiskynovember]

Hey Whisky, a bunch of big banks took a hit today. I haven’t had time to dig in yet, you hear anything?

I suspect it has to do with projected earnings being sharply reduced as banks curtail lending. As Snider puts it, deflationary money (a slowdown in circulation of money/credit/collateral all over the globe) is turning into deflationary economies. Businesses don't run on cash, they run on credit. Credit runs on collateral (Treasuries), and collateral values are driven by liquidity characteristics in repo markets. Banks are important suppliers of collateral, but much of that collateral has fallen in value due to interest rate increases. At the same time commercial real estate loans are seen as high risk rollovers and banks are pulling in their horns. Another whammy is bank deposit flight to money markets. So bank balance sheets could get really wonky. The FED liquidity facilities are helping as it tries to reduce stress on this part of the financial system that is cracking under the war on inflation.

[whiskynovember]

Oh wow. DB was hit for aiding and abetting a Ponzi scheme. I mean everyone that looks at this kind of stuff already knows but I can’t believe courts and media just said the quiet part out loud.

DB is a filthy money laundering organization. Why do ya think Trump has been in bed with it forever. Long ago I stopped paying attention to the number of huge loans from DB Trump defaulted on. It never sought repayment, and issued him more loans, because that's how the laundering scam works. Banksters and Gangsters and Grifters.

[lowkey]

I get what you’re saying but the crazy thing to me is this kind of stuff quickly being out in the open. Anybody that cared to look has been able to see, this feels a bit different to me.

[lowkey]

FRC news hitting on the same day. Which story is bigger in your opinion?

[lowkey]

Jesus fucking Christ. The Ted Cruze tapes hitting at the same exact time? Wtf else is going on today?

[whiskynovember]

FRC news hitting on the same day. Which story is bigger in your opinion?

I can't speak to specifics mostly because I don't own bank shares, but I suspect repricing is playing out in fits and starts as the fastest rate increase in history bites the value of unhedged bank assets and loans. If the market, as expressed by money curves all over the globe, is right that interest rates are going to sharply fall in the near-timeframe, then banks shares are probably going to be a bargain soon.

[whiskynovember]

Jesus fucking Christ. The Ted Cruze tapes hitting at the same exact time? Wtf else is going on today?

They're called Republicans for a reason: democracy is secondary to the republic. In their mind democracy suffers from "the tyranny of the majority." So they don't care about what the majority of citizens want or care about because they serve/represent an organ of government. (And they call liberals the authoritarians. That's rich.) That's why they undermine elections and voting: the population is a barely tolerated enemy. Despite all their rhetoric about freedom and liberty it is not "we the people" they serve, they serve the organ government, the republic.

And then they shriek about secession all in the same breath when reciting the pledge of allegiance. They are stunning moral cowards.

[whiskynovember]

PPI and CPI print this week. Pivotal for dollar and gold. I'm nervous.

Why Airfares, Hotels and Cars are Getting So Expensive for Americans (msn.com)

After 40 frickin' years of falling rates we have entered a period of structural price increases and monetary inflation.

Labor: There's not enough of it, and the GOPer nutjobs are literally peeling their own faces off about immigration.
Energy: Not mentioned in the article: oil companies refuse to expand supply until prices get back over $100 per barrel.
Autos: Factories are cutting back just to keep prices high.
Hotels: We don't need no steenking 98% occupancy. Our earnings are fine, thank you very much.
Airfare: Luxury travelers and business class customers hang onto your wallets!
Toilet paper users: HAR! what are ya gonna do?

It's not Bidenflation, kids, it's macro-economics and capitalism at work.

[lowkey]

I know you have strong feelings about the American dollar remaining the standard for global currency, and I get the reasons you’ve laid out. That said, I’m a little nervous too. I keep hearing more and more that countries may have been preparing themselves to abandon the dollar. Maybe they saw it as “The giving tree” and used it up in a sense? I’m definitely not calling the sky falling but maybe a temporary struggle for more stability and some bad bets made on the sides of those betting against the dollar? IDK but the situation itself is starting to push boundaries and what is quickly conceivable maybe.
In other words I hope the dollar holds up, but I don’t think there will be many alarm bells and time to move if it doesn’t. Just IMO

[lowkey]

What if the yuan was declared the world currency? I mean just think about how hard it is to balance stuff here.

[lowkey]

They would have that honor for a few years tops? I’m not here to shit on China, but they aren’t ready for that.