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Also IMO, key indicators for me are mortgage backed securities, auto loans, and student loan backed securities defaults. People might to keep an on them right now.
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Lately the market has dragged me to the woodshed and beaten the shit out of me. But I sold a large overvalued house and bought a smaller one with lesser taxes/HOA fees. It feels like I dodged a bullet there. Put the balance into CDs yielding 4.5%. Equities will get crushed if the FFR goes to 6% for a year, but as long as oil catches a bid in the $70s and gold catches a bid in the mid $1800s it will be an indication that we aren't in a deflationary doom loop.
If the GOPers send us into nominal default because they are butthurt about trans people being allowed to exist then a re-pricing on a scale similar to the Great Financial Crisis will take place only this time it will have some weird phases that swing from deflation to inflation as the US$ collapses and destroys global capitalism and the demand it drives in global trade. The only, and I mean only, virtue in that will be the ultimate death of the Republican Party as a modern ideology. The sovereign entity that the GOP craves to destroy will sacrifice its currency in order to save its capital (bond) market, and the deficit that results will be dealt with by default in real terms, not in nominal terms. In other words: a decade of inflation will take place during which sovereign debt/bond holders are paid back in dollars that could be worth as little as 50% of par.
Make no mistake, this is what the GOP will risk instead of raising taxes on the elites. But they'll blame it on Queers, Browns, and Hunter's laptop.
And while their mutts blow up electrical sub-stations they'll rant about TikTok.Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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It's hard to gauge the risk in the shadow banking system that is tied to these interest rate-sensitive assets. Large American commercial banks are in much, much better shape than they were in 2008. We kicked that risk up to the sovereign level while implementing zero-interest-rate policy. But there are many other, smaller financial entities that will get hammered if consumers default on servicing these loans. The potential contagion is always a worry, but the fix is easy if politics plays nice. Does anybody think politics wants to play nice right now? Hmmm?Originally posted by lowkey View PostConservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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Lmao. You never underdeliver. Also never thought of you as an HOA subscriber.
That pitch to Double! Capital gains is insane. Makes me wonder about the timing with the banks having a hard time and all. Idk
(edited to say hoa) I have a hard time seeing you putting up with their shit.Last edited by lowkey; 03-09-2023, 11:31 PM.Comment
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I am done maintaining the outside of my domicile. Landscaping, tree-trimming, painting, roof maintenance, drip systems, spraying for insects (in the desert it's a must), pools, gyms, and workout facilities all cost and trust me I've done the math.Originally posted by lowkey View Post
Doubling capital gains bugs me but I get it. The thing is the American middle class would be far more populated if it just took advantage of capital privilege. But it doesn't. Me personally, I'm happy to pay more tax, but I don't vote in respect of myself, I vote in respect of aggregate America. The capital class needs to pay more tax. But the capital class gets close of half the American population to fight for the rich because that half has been sold on the notion that if things go to shit but minorities have juuuuust a little worse then it's good for that half. The rich are cowards who get the aggrieved working poor to fight their battles for them.
When it comes time to fight ..... the elites all develop bone spurs.Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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I wasn’t complaining about increasing capital gains by any means, I would love for that to be my problem. As far as who we vote for, I personally vote for one side until people will openly question and look into what their officials are voting for and where their money is coming from. I’ve looked into the dirtiest scumbags with tons of money and it flows one way. I dont like to divide, but yeah. If anyone cares to do homework it’s not hard to see who is buying the corruption and who owns MSMComment
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Wow. What a meltdown in Silicon Valley Bank. Banking sector risk, if it comes to it, should get J Powell's attention. Small bank and small non-bank lending entities make up the shadow system (and a lot of domestic dollar creation), and everything should move along fine as long as they don't have to sell their bond portfolios to meet liquidity demands. But if they do have to recapitalize as defaults rise, the zero-interest-rate chickens come home to roost. Poor SBV. Mark to market is a bitch.
C'mon Libertarians, let me hear you preach: "We don't need no steenking FDIC!"
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand remember, Trump, who appointed J Powell got super pissed at him when he couldn't force Powell to lower interest rates into negative territory just to buy votes. Negative nominal rates would have set us up for way more defaults in consumer loans. Waaaay more Zombie companies unable to recapitalize. Waaaay more economic uncertainty than we face right now. Waaaay higher deficits, beyond even the 25% increase Trump caused.
This is an old story: Reagan trashed the deficit; Clinton repaired it; Bush trashed the deficit; Obama repaired it; Trump trashed the deficit; Biden is repairing it. This is why we pay taxes. This is why we insure banks/depositors. Republicans aren't fiscal conservatives, they just blame shit on minorities and atheists and Queers. Republicans don't run the economy better than Democrats, Republicans just give tax cuts to the rich and tell you your Social Security and Medicare is killing America.Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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Yeah man. There’s something insane like 65k startups dealing with liquidity issues suddenly because of SVB, that’s a pretty big deal. Also, did you see USD coin depegged overnight and dropped 9% last I saw?Comment
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Ya gotta guess this is gonna happen to 95% of crypto coins over time. Down 13% from the peg.
Speaking of this stuff, what is behind the hysteria about CBDC and how it is the spawn of Satan? Don't these rube conspiracy theorists understand that the US dollar is digital and has been since the days of the telegraph? Ever since electricity could travel faster over a single strand wire from San Francisco to Chicago, faster than pony express could lug a strongbox of gold dust, the nature of capitalism has used ledger money instead of physical currency and physical cash equivalents to settle transactions. I amazes me how ignorant these troglodytes are. They fill up YouTube with yammering diatribes about the tyranny of the FED and how capitalism is soon to be dead all because something something something Central Planners!
There might be one physical dollar for every 1,000,000 digital dollars in the global monetary system. I don't really know, and to be absolutely truthful, nobody knows.Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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I want this woman's brain.
Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.
~ UnknownComment
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Why don’t people trust cbdc? How much faith do you have that banks and the Fed are looking out for you? I bet JPow sleeps well at nightComment
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We can do better
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