The stock market

[lowkey]

Feels like it's about time for this rally to stall, chop, and slide into October where there is almost always a good buying point. Maybe we chop around for a few weeks with sticky CPI #s while PMI #s continue to roll over until employment #s catch up and sentiment goes into the crapper. Then the FED really has a decision to make with: CPI somewhere between 4-6 (or higher); unemployment rising (but still low); housing prices rolling over (but still high); dollar high but no longer rising (still pinching off global liquidity and collateral chains); mid-terms looming.

Once it's confirmed/accepted we're in recession (we already are) the debate will shift to how deep/how long and whether the market can see across the valley and rally into the seasonally traditionally strong holiday period. But the SPR drawdown effect on WTI will be pretty much over; Putin will be freezing Western Europe to death; China will be playing auto-erotic asphyxia with export chains. I'm thinking it'll come down to: energy prices > FED > interest rates > currency markets.

It could seize up and really suck: Credit markets should be the first important tell. Watch the re-po rate(/ Euro-dollar futures) for spikes. That will presage any FED(/ECB) pivot. Structurally the pivot would stay in the base money dimension/ re-po market before transitioning to the FED Funds Rate. Then it gets really interesting. Virtually none of the gunslingers on Wall Street lived during either of the two historical analogues that inform us here. (Elements of the mid 40s and late 70s apply, but it never repeats, it just rhymes. Sovereign debt ratios and negative real rates from the 40s + CPI pressures from the 70s.) Fun times.

Yes sir. I expect the market to give one final pump/head fake before the final fallout. Historically it’s October/November when the shit hits the fan and I have no reason to believe it’ll be any different this time

[lowkey]

Damn bbby got slaughtered all day. Retail traders really took it up the tailpipe all day across the board. I wasn’t in bbby but it did have my attention. Really feel for people that lost their ass in that

[whiskynovember]

Consumer spending is rotating out of consumer staples into services. Peloton, Target, Walmart are suffering just like BBBY. But, as gas prices come down (thanks Brandon!!!) some of that discretionary spending might shift back. Then as the cycle slows and job #s flatten, all while the FED stays Hawkish (remember Trumptards, you asked for this!) the SPR effect will dissipate and oil prices will firm just in time for the recession to bite. If the FED truly institutes QT it will precipitate a clog in the plumbing of the credit markets, and the knock-on effect will exacerbate an already tight collateral chain in the illiquid offshore dollar system, which is violently forcing up the value of the dollar.

What a weird time it is. If Trump was President and had his way we would be at negative nominal interest rates because, being the King of Debt and borrowing, he knew nothing of value in inflation adjusted terms. Instead, we have a Democrat who gives more of a shit about consumer prices than he does the stock market. So we're going to get a recession. The midterms will decide what later happens economically, and if history is any guide, a Democrat victory will lead to the gains in both equity and labor markets it historically does in excess of when the GOPers hold power. It's an old story.

[lowkey]

We need a new thread. When I started this one I was thinking more along the lines of talking about hot tickers or big moves on more individual stocks or sectors, but it’s pretty cool there’s more interest into diving deeper into what is driving the market and I love that and look forward to discussing what’s happening and where we’re going

[whiskynovember]

Some of us have argued about energy policy and prices. The people I listen to are bullish on oil/natural gas and explain it as a classic under-investment cycle due to low prices. They also note that the fracking miracle has feet of clay due to the fact that all fracking wells decline in yield at a 5%- 6% monthly rate. Pioneer Natural Resources (ticker symbol PXD on NYSE) owns a legacy portfolio of Permian Basin oil leases and rights to drill. Two wells are on my family's land in West Texas. The land itself was given by my mother to National Public Radio (suck on it MAGAts!) but my family retains the mineral rights. The share price is down along with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude (Thanks Brandon!) but company management has chosen to distribute earnings rather than to drill new wells with prices so low. This is the new fiscal discipline that domestic energy companies have chosen to pursue after setting their $ on fire during the fracking boom. This is capitalism doing what it does best. This is not Brandon trying to destroy America because he hates freedom. PDX has perhaps the best portfolio of leases in the Permian and they're sitting on their hands until prices rise.

In the meantime, in accordance with this thread, investors might check into PXD for the dividend yield.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/this-ultra-high-yield-oil-stock-s-dividend-gusher-could-get-even-bigger-in-2023/ar-AA16aKgS?cvid=44ce8278f1d846f9be3f8bb19ee5b1dd

PXD happens to be my second largest equity holding, and I've owned it longer than I can remember. I didn't have the brains to buy it, but my man did. Check it out and remember: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

[ravenhome777]

I am an expert! I've lost thousands in the stock market. I am very diversified in losses.

I currently own DRV which is a reverse real estate stock. So if the stock market goes down, it goes up. I highly recommend it. Huge losses!

[whiskynovember]

I am an expert! I've lost thousands in the stock market. I am very diversified in losses.

I currently own DRV which is a reverse real estate stock. So if the stock market goes down, it goes up. I highly recommend it. Huge losses!

I know the feeling.

[whiskynovember]

I am an expert! I've lost thousands in the stock market. I am very diversified in losses.

I currently own DRV which is a reverse real estate stock. So if the stock market goes down, it goes up. I highly recommend it. Huge losses!

And more to your point: I bought a smaller cheaper house and am trying to sell my other house and it ain't going so well. So, yeah, this shit kinda gets on your nerves after a while doesn't it!

[lowkey]

Mortgage defaults are rising sharply again, commercial real estate, auto loans and student debt loans too.

[whiskynovember]

Mortgage defaults are rising sharply again, commercial real estate, auto loans and student debt loans too.

Yup. Rolling over debt is gonna hurt like hell. Everything In America is run on debt, and developed economies will not grow if credit doesn't expand annually.

[lowkey]

The banks are scrambling to get that garbage off of their books. It’s basically worthless and they know it. It’s totally like 08 only bigger

[lowkey]

TNXP is an interesting ticker for me.

[whiskynovember]

TNXP is an interesting ticker for me.

Interesting that you would mention a pharma stock. Aside from such pearls of wisdom my man has said:

"In big sell-offs you sell what's down 50% and buy what's down 90%."

and

"You make the bulk of your gains in just a small number of names in a broadly diversified portfolio."

My largest holding and biggest winner is a bio-pharma name: CORT (NYSE). He bought it @ $3. It's been as high as $30. But bio-tech and bio-pharma are wildly volatile, and it takes a real pro to research the company and its pipeline of products. As an example of that minefield: he bought 4 bio-pharma names in Obama's last year in office. Corcept is the sole winner, big, big winner. Two he has dumped entirely. The fourth is a dog he holds onto for some reason. Take your Dramamine and strap in, or take your bite and stand close to the door.

[lowkey]

Those high risk pharmas are no place for the meek. There’s a lot to be gained by shorts running a legit company with a bunch of patents and assets out of business. Especially if they compete with another company you’re long in.

I’m betting on the other side of the activists short tutes on everything right now. Every chance I get. I’m betting on them failing like they always do.

[Suzy]

Interesting that you would mention a pharma stock. Aside from such pearls of wisdom my man has said:

"In big sell-offs you sell what's down 50% and buy what's down 90%."

and

"You make the bulk of your gains in just a small number of names in a broadly diversified portfolio."

My largest holding and biggest winner is a bio-pharma name: CORT (NYSE). He bought it @ $3. It's been as high as $30. But bio-tech and bio-pharma are wildly volatile, and it takes a real pro to research the company and its pipeline of products. As an example of that minefield: he bought 4 bio-pharma names in Obama's last year in office. Corcept is the sole winner, big, big winner. Two he has dumped entirely. The fourth is a dog he holds onto for some reason. Take your Dramamine and strap in, or take your bite and stand close to the door.

Perhaps that dog your friend is holding onto is a road that turns into a fire breathing dragon. Some of the biggest winners start out that way, an underdog that sits right on the edge. Investing in something like that has occurred to me a couple of times, but I'm always hesitant. The problem is, if the stocks aren't set ablaze, then things could go willy nilly. Needless to say, a person could get burned real fast.