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  • #16
    Yup, speaking of gold, held up in a selloff despite: DXY at a 5 year high; rising 10-year yield; liquidity draining out of the FED's credit facility. It's funny how all the genius of the private sector and the vaunted efficiency of the marketplace crapped the bed today.
    Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.

    ~ Unknown

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    • #17
      Gold will have its day fairly soon Whiskey.
      Im not a crypto guy but that has my full attention now. I’ve thought of it as the canary in the coal mine for a while. I have a buddy that was saying gold and metals aren’t moving up as would be expected because buyers have branched into other assets that may have a negative beta, mainly BTC and other crypto. I think they’re different buyers. I think buyers of both want to get out of fiat (paper money) but the ones all in crypto are gambling hard. My understanding is a giant chunk of crypto is owned by over leveraged tutes. Once that bubble pops we’re in for a ride

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      • #18
        I’m watching out for BTC loosing support at 20k and etherium at 1k. I think if that happens we see a HUGE fall. And then I’m looking at Bit searching for a level of support at 10k. If that breaks you may want to start considering how cheap you’ll be able to stock up.

        Im an idiot so none of what I say is ever financial advice

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        • #19
          Originally posted by lowkey View Post
          Gold will have its day fairly soon Whiskey.
          Im not a crypto guy but that has my full attention now. I’ve thought of it as the canary in the coal mine for a while. I have a buddy that was saying gold and metals aren’t moving up as would be expected because buyers have branched into other assets that may have a negative beta, mainly BTC and other crypto. I think they’re different buyers. I think buyers of both want to get out of fiat (paper money) but the ones all in crypto are gambling hard. My understanding is a giant chunk of crypto is owned by over leveraged tutes. Once that bubble pops we’re in for a ride
          ^^^^ That's exactly how I see it too. In concept, crypto has legit de-fi application in countries with authoritarian governments, unstable capital markets, high inflation, bank closures, asset seizures. As bad as it has been for the Turkish Lira, someone in Istanbul with all their $ in BTC was doing way better until just recently. Entitled American rebel capitalist who are in it for the defiant edginess can hodl and hodl all they want, but right now what they've piled into isn't much more than a leveraged bet on liquidity. If the whales reach their pain point and sell, the retail hodler will be decimated.

          Blockchain technology may well be planet-changing in it ultimate applications, but I'm a dinosaur who still likes companies that make widgets.
          Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.

          ~ Unknown

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by lowkey View Post
            I’m watching out for BTC loosing support at 20k and etherium at 1k. I think if that happens we see a HUGE fall. And then I’m looking at Bit searching for a level of support at 10k. If that breaks you may want to start considering how cheap you’ll be able to stock up.

            Im an idiot so none of what I say is ever financial advice
            We could see sub-$10k BTC in a hard inflationary recession. Check out Lyn Alden for excellent analysis of all the components in the crypto space. She's one of those rare brainiac engineers who speaks in plain digestible English. She's also great at macro and economic cycles. Don't be misled by some who use her reputation to tout financial Armageddon bullshit on YouTube.
            Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.

            ~ Unknown

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            • #21
              Yes sir. But to completely fair I think of blockchain as a widget whiskynovember . I’m not advocating for buying crypto right now, just my belief that it’s going up from here after it gets crushed . (Not touching it with a ten foot pole right now)
              I can tell you do keep your ear to the ground and know your stuff. You have my attention and respect.

              Just you using the term “hodl” had me lmao.
              stay cool WN

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              • #22
                Originally posted by lowkey View Post
                Yes sir. But to completely fair I think of blockchain as a widget whiskynovember . I’m not advocating for buying crypto right now, just my belief that it’s going up from here after it gets crushed . (Not touching it with a ten foot pole right now)
                I can tell you do keep your ear to the ground and know your stuff. You have my attention and respect.

                Just you using the term “hodl” had me lmao.
                stay cool WN
                You're exactly right, it's a widget with vast potential. Right now it has to go through a troubled adolescence before growing up. It may have just thrown a brick through the police station front window and is leading the cops on a chase across town before it gets tossed into juvie and learns to be a productive member of society. for BTC under $18k there's nothing but dead air until about $12k.

                Although Lyn Alden doesn't focus on crypto in the vid below, if you have an hour of life to listen to someone who should be cloned a dozen times and put into policy positions around our nation/planet, she covers global macro and cycles very succinctly. Inject this woman's brain directly into my vein.


                Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.

                ~ Unknown

                Comment


                • #23
                  whiskynovember , got any thoughts on calls on the VIX? I’m getting a buzz and entertaining far OTM for Oct, Nov

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                  • #24
                    Is it just me or is damn near everyone waiting for the market to bottom out before they buy?

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by lowkey View Post
                      whiskynovember , got any thoughts on calls on the VIX? I’m getting a buzz and entertaining far OTM for Oct, Nov
                      Options ain't my thang. Too much math.
                      Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.

                      ~ Unknown

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by lowkey View Post
                        Is it just me or is damn near everyone waiting for the market to bottom out before they buy?
                        I think everyone is trying to decide if the market is done discounting a soft landing or if it's about to discount a hard landing. Forward earnings estimates on the S&P are still in LaLa land. Multiples, having come down from the 20s to the teens might stick @16. If the earnings bottom @$200 that's 3200 on the index. July earnings will give 'em something to chew on.
                        Conservatism is the belief that a small subset of the people is protected by the law, but not bound by it, while another, larger group is bound by the law, but is not protected by it.

                        ~ Unknown

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by whiskynovember View Post

                          I think everyone is trying to decide if the market is done discounting a soft landing or if it's about to discount a hard landing. Forward earnings estimates on the S&P are still in LaLa land. Multiples, having come down from the 20s to the teens might stick @16. If the earnings bottom @$200 that's 3200 on the index. July earnings will give 'em something to chew on.
                          I agree that people are waiting to see if it’s a soft landing. In my opinion it won’t be and it’s been obvious for a really long time. A lot of bad bets have been doubled down on and this isn’t going to be pretty when the fallout comes. IMO

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                          • #28
                            Things are starting to get a little spicy again! A lot of stocks are splitting

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