The stock market

[lowkey]

I was wondering if there were an treasure hunters here that play in the stock market. After being in The Chase for many years I started looking into stocks and kind of joined a group of die hards that share stock data and charts and stuff on social media and they remind me exactly of the people here who looked for the chest. Laser focused, dedicated and a lot of them have a one track my like myself and others around here. I found the transition eerily smooth from treasure hunting to trading and I just thought I’d share. Please feel free to share thoughts and try no to give actual financial advice, just opinions.

[Strawshadow]

I was wondering if there were an treasure hunters here that play in the stock market. After being in The Chase for many years I started looking into stocks and kind of joined a group of die hards that share stock data and charts and stuff on social media and they remind me exactly of the people here who looked for the chest. Laser focused, dedicated and a lot of them have a one track my like myself and others around here. I found the transition eerily smooth from treasure hunting to trading and I just thought I’d share. Please feel free to share thoughts and try no to give actual financial advice, just opinions.

Look at Solid Power on the nasdaq?

[lowkey]

I will for sure Strawshadow . Btw, not sure if you guys remember but my wife and I were the ones that hung out with you for an hour and a half waiting to get in to the Waffle House at the Yellowstone Fennally. You guys were cool , told me about searching on a mountain top with 4 wheelers IIRC

[lowkey]

I just really briefly looked into it. So it’s a small cap company doing solid state batteries for EVs. It’s backed by Ford and BMW which is promising. The thing that kind of caught my eye was it was trading with double the average volume today which makes me suspect there are a lot of bets on both sides of it, the interesting thing about all that volume is exchange reported short interest is only like 2%. But then again all of that data is self reported so take it with a grain of salt. Going to look into the Cost To Borrow (CTB) and see how expensive it is for shorters to hold the price down. I’ll be back.

My thoughts only not advice

[lowkey]

And for anyone else following this thread, the ticker symbol we’re discussing is SLDP

[lowkey]

Looks like cost to borrow is 4.05% according to Fintel, which only uses a sampling of data from top institutions but it’s not in any way set in stone. 4% isn’t especially high but it’s not exactly low, it does seem a little weird though for a stock with only a little over 2% short interest and 500,000 shares readily available to short with a cost to borrow that high which indicates there is some demand for shares. All just my observations but I’ll look into it more. Definitely an interesting stock

[lowkey]

Very recent short volume has been huge in SLDP. I’m seeing 60 ~75% on the recent daily volume. This screams very volatile and very high risk/high reward. This one feels like a stock that a bunch of hedge funds are betting will go down. It’s recent chart is extremely bearish too. I haven’t had a chance to look into their financials, but this definitely looks like it’s going to be short term bearish and long term it’s going to have to have good fundamentals to get by. My guess is it’s a good candidate to get in a merger or be bought out since it seems to have patented technologies, get shorted into the ground or possibly squeeze. All of this is just my opinion after only looking at the data for a very short while. That said, this stock screams boom or bust to me FWIW.

not financial advice just my thoughts

And fwiw I only play high risk stocks (right now). So I’m not saying it’s a bad bet

[lowkey]

Also forgot to mention Amazon did a 20 to 1 split. That’s unreal. More on that later

[whiskynovember]

I own sectors that benefit from inflation, supply scarcity and monetary tightening by the FED. Energy, base materials, agriculture, natural resources, precious metals, and real estate. Any security in those sectors that has real asset value and low debt and is not affected by rising capital costs is desirable. Zombie companies and Tech in general may have a strong bounce from current oversold levels, but any company that relies on refinancing debt at low/ever falling interest rates is eventually doomed by the end of this debt cycle. All you have to do is look at the last 40 years of US Treasury yields to know that the macro environment has changed. That scenario doesn't even mention the sovereign debt crisis looming on a global scale. That's the scary part that changes the typical business cycle to a long-term global debt cycle.

[lowkey]

I love the ideas that are pouring in here and to be honest I didn’t think this thread was probably even get any traction so I’m excited as hell. I see a case for both of your statements and largely agree with both but not entirely. Tech, energy, commodities, housing and even student loan asset based securities (slabs) , commercial real estate backed securities, foreign bonds, used auto loans , hundreds of trillions in derivatives on books, leveraging at as high as 200-1 at some institutions (holy crap), etc are at the core of what is beginning to happen in the market. I really can’t wait to dig deeper with you. It’s all fascinating to me and I can’t wait for us all to share

All just my opinion

[Strawshadow]

I just really briefly looked into it. So it’s a small cap company doing solid state batteries for EVs. It’s backed by Ford and BMW which is promising. The thing that kind of caught my eye was it was trading with double the average volume today which makes me suspect there are a lot of bets on both sides of it, the interesting thing about all that volume is exchange reported short interest is only like 2%. But then again all of that data is self reported so take it with a grain of salt. Going to look into the Cost To Borrow (CTB) and see how expensive it is for shorters to hold the price down. I’ll be back.

My thoughts only not advice

Glad to hear you two are doing well and nice to hear from you. Looking at the recent selling and how it lines up with the 6 month anniversary of going public tells me that maybe a block was in place. After a little profit has been taken things will probably calm down. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

[lowkey]

Hey Strawshadow really cool that it was you we hung out with.
I could definitely see that being whales cashing in some gains, I guess the simplest solution is usually the best answer

[lowkey]

Do you guys have any thoughts on why precious metals are better suppressed in price? The thing that blew my mind was London Metal Exchange REVERSED trades after the price of nickel started squeezing about a month ago

[lowkey]

And how is gold trading at literally 50 times its average volume in a day with the DOW tanking and staying at exactly the same price? Silver too. So much to discuss, can’t wait to talk more

[whiskynovember]

And how is gold trading at literally 50 times its average volume in a day with the DOW tanking and staying at exactly the same price? Silver too. So much to discuss, can’t wait to talk more

I don't pay attention to the conspiracy theories about gold manipulation although it is a highly financialized/paper leveraged hard asset. Part of that is just to facilitate trade liquidity around its unique stock to flow characteristics. Otherwise, the thing most important to gold valuations are real interest rates, IMO. As nominal rates rise it puts pressure on gold as the currency in which it is denominated strengthens. For precious metals in general, the gold/silver ratio needs to fall for history to indicate a resumption in the PM rally. I own miners, and not a speck of physical gold.

I think the better question is: "Why hasn't gold gotten totally hammered as negative real rates have improved in the FED's tightening cycle?": Sovereign debt to GDP ratios. When central banks eventually relent, and they will when recession destroys government tax receipts, their liquidity resumption will help gold. It will help Bitcoin much, much more, but gold hasn't lost half its peak value like Bitcoin has. As much as we would like gold to be stronger/north of $2k, it's doing just fine.